Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:59 am at San Francisco); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: UA 1205 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–21%.

Safest bet today UA 1205 SFO 08:10 → RDU 16:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2199 SFO 14:21 → RDU 22:24 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1205 United Flight history →	SFO 08:10	RDU 16:25	9%	3%	0.2%	94%
UA 2816 United	SFO 08:17	RDU 16:37	10%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 1965 United Flight history →	SFO 16:10	RDU 00:28	18%	4%	0.2%	77%
UA 2199 United	SFO 14:21	RDU 22:24	21%	5%	0.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 13:26 → SLC 16:16DL 902	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:51 → RDU 23:57DL 402	7h 31m	90%	74%
Delta Details →	SFO 13:20 → SLC 16:14DL 849	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → RDU 23:37DL 1409	7h 17m	83%	69%
United Details →	SFO 13:15 → IAD 21:25UA 1791	1h 00m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → RDU 23:44UA 2382	7h 29m	80%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON