Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:43 pm at San Francisco); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 31–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1757 SFO 22:45 → RNO 23:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest UA 1613 SFO 16:45 → RNO 17:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1757 United Flight history →	SFO 22:45	RNO 23:58	31%	8%	0.4%	64%
UA 581 United	SFO 18:52	RNO 20:07	31%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 5983 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 21:10	RNO 22:29	35%	10%	0.7%	61%
UA 2690 United	SFO 16:27	RNO 17:38	36%	10%	0.4%	no record
UA 1613 United Flight history →	SFO 16:45	RNO 17:59	36%	10%	0.4%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON