tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:39 pm at San Francisco); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:39, is the safest bet: 39% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2281 United SFO 16:19 SAT 21:50 31% 9% 0.2% no record
UA 6036 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 18:37 SAT 00:29 33% 12% 0.4% 75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SFO 14:20 → DEN 18:11UA 1596 2h 28m Denver DEN 20:39 → SAT 23:55UA 395 7h 35m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → SFO 14:30 → LAX 15:56DL 2725 3h 03m Los Angeles LAX 18:59 → SAT 23:54DL 2686 7h 24m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → SFO 13:39 → LAX 15:19AA 6188 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Los Angeles LAX 18:22 → SAT 23:29AA 4962 · flown by SkyWest 7h 50m 98% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 15:45 → LAS 17:25WN 1288 3h 30m Las Vegas LAS 20:55 → SAT 01:40 +1WN 2335 7h 55m 100% 62%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 14:35 → DEN 18:10WN 3641 2h 43m Denver DEN 20:53 → SAT 00:09 +1WN 2607 7h 34m 95% 62%
UnitedDetails → SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 1h 04m Denver DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819 6h 11m 80% 55%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599 7h 55m 96% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SFO 16:00 → SAN 17:40WN 3652 2h 45m San Diego SAN 20:25 → SAT 01:15 +1WN 3530 7h 15m 96% 40%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SFO 13:20 → LAS 15:00WN 3644 1h 08m Las Vegas LAS 16:08 → SAT 20:50WN 2597 5h 30m 64% 39%
DeltaDetails → SFO 16:39 → LAX 18:13DL 2267 46m Los Angeles LAX 18:59 → SAT 23:54DL 2686 5h 15m 57% 39%
AmericanDetails → SFO 14:03 → DFW 19:59AA 2387 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406 5h 57m 50% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON