Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: UA 1578 at 10:29 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet today UA 1578 SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 5464 SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1578 United Flight history →	SFO 10:29	SBA 11:52	22%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 2866 United Flight history →	SFO 21:23	SBA 22:45	26%	7%	0.9%	76%
OO 5806 SkyWest	SFO 19:16	SBA 20:52	28%	10%	1.0%	no record
OO 5936 SkyWest	SFO 16:35	SBA 18:08	30%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 5862 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:10	SBA 17:37	30%	10%	0.9%	68%
UA 5464 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 13:50	SBA 15:17	33%	13%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON