Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5220 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5220 SFO 08:17 → SMF 09:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OO 4790 SFO 12:20 → SMF 13:12 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5220 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 08:17	SMF 09:25	12%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 5796 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:08	SMF 18:16	16%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SFO 22:54	SMF 23:59	22%	7%	0.6%	59%
OO 4790 SkyWest	SFO 12:20	SMF 13:12	30%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON