Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:39 pm at San Francisco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via LAX, leaving 20:05, is the safest bet: 45% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 649 United Flight history →	SFO 21:13	TPA 05:38	23%	5%	0.4%	90%worse than usual
UA 1702 United	SFO 21:20	TPA 06:02	23%	6%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SFO 20:05 → LAX 21:40DL 1559	54m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910	7h 11m	62%	45%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON