Today: OO 5341 at 19:16 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–35%.

Safest bet today OO 5341 SFO 19:16 → TUS 21:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 6023 SFO 12:23 → TUS 14:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5341 SkyWest	SFO 19:16	TUS 21:46	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 5688 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:57	TUS 23:26	25%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 5433 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 10:26	TUS 12:46	31%	10%	0.4%	84%worse than usual
UA 5962 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 16:34	TUS 18:48	33%	8%	0.6%	76%
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 12:23	TUS 14:47	35%	11%	0.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON