Today: DL 854 at 15:15 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet today DL 854 SGF 15:15 → ATL 18:13 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 4709 SGF 17:28 → ATL 20:28 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 854 Delta	SGF 15:15	ATL 18:13	21%	7%	0.5%	no record
DL 2758 Delta Flight history →	SGF 18:53	ATL 21:54	24%	7%	0.5%	60%
9E 4709 Endeavor	SGF 17:28	ATL 20:28	33%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON