Today: AA 4083 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet today AA 4083 SGF 06:53 → CLT 10:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5466 SGF 18:21 → CLT 21:26 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4083 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 06:53	CLT 10:15	9%	4%	1.1%	96%
AA 4060 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 13:23	CLT 16:44	14%	4%	1.0%	89%
MQ 4209 Envoy	SGF 11:36	CLT 14:39	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 5407 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 15:19	CLT 18:25	19%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 5405 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 11:27	CLT 14:44	21%	11%	2.2%	80%
AA 5466 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 18:21	CLT 21:26	25%	5%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON