Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:01 pm at Springfield); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via O'Hare, leaving 19:53, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Springfield). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SGF 19:53 → ORD 21:45AA 3626 · flown by Envoy	50m Chicago	ORD 22:35 → DEN 00:17 +1AA 1387	5h 24m	77%	54%
American Details →	SGF 19:40 → DFW 21:20AA 3797 · flown by Envoy	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → DEN 00:08 +1AA 2852	5h 28m	89%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON