Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3842 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3842 SGF 05:01 → DFW 06:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3803 SGF 18:34 → DFW 20:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3842 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 05:01	DFW 06:38	10%	4%	0.8%	93%
AA 3424 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 07:00	DFW 08:40	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 3801 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:30	DFW 11:11	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 3913 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 09:24	DFW 10:52	12%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 3624 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 08:14	DFW 09:54	13%	4%	0.7%	82%
MQ 4211 Envoy	SGF 10:43	DFW 12:21	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3794 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 12:46	DFW 14:25	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 3952 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 13:04	DFW 14:48	16%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SGF 10:43	DFW 12:14	19%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 14:21	DFW 16:05	20%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 16:21	DFW 17:50	24%	4%	0.7%	68%
AA 3797 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 19:40	DFW 21:20	24%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 3795 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 15:37	DFW 17:16	25%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 18:34	DFW 20:15	25%	4%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON