Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:33 am at Springfield); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: one nonstop, OO 4671 at 15:13, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 4671 SGF 15:13 → IAH 17:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 4671 SkyWest	SGF 15:13	IAH 17:27	26%	13%	0.4%	no record
UA 4996 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 17:08	IAH 19:10	22%	11%	2.2%	78%
UA 4574 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:15	IAH 17:17	28%	14%	3.3%	72%
UA 4840 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	SGF 15:05	IAH 17:10	46%	24%	0.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON