Today: AA 3626 at 19:53 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–42%.

Safest bet today AA 3626 SGF 19:53 → ORD 21:45 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest OO 4732 SGF 18:28 → ORD 20:12 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3626 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SGF 19:53	ORD 21:45	19%	6%	0.4%	62%
MQ 3388 Envoy	SGF 17:14	ORD 18:53	22%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 4792 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SGF 18:34	ORD 20:29	38%	14%	0.6%	59%
OO 5686 SkyWest	SGF 15:25	ORD 16:32	40%	10%	0.6%	no record
OO 4732 SkyWest	SGF 18:28	ORD 20:12	42%	14%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON