Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:11 pm at Shreveport); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4111 at 17:16, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4111 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SHV 17:16	ATL 20:13	26%	6%	0.4%	61%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Shreveport). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SHV 17:13 → DFW 18:34AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	6h 06m	91%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON