Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:20 pm at Shreveport); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:16, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Shreveport). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SHV 17:16 → ATL 20:13DL 4111 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	5h 42m	90%	69%
American Details →	SHV 14:33 → DFW 15:52AA 5649 · flown by PSA	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → CLT 22:38AA 1229	7h 05m	100%	64%
American Details →	SHV 14:36 → DFW 15:58AA 4130 · flown by Envoy	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → CLT 22:33AA 3002	6h 57m	98%	59%
American Details →	SHV 17:13 → DFW 18:34AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409	6h 46m	92%	58%
United Details →	SHV 15:35 → IAH 16:50UA 5837 · flown by SkyWest	1h 22m Houston	IAH 18:12 → CLT 21:59UA 2864	5h 24m	90%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON