Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:39 pm at Shreveport); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 17:56, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Shreveport). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SHV 17:56 → IAH 19:10UA 5959 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Houston	IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066	7h 01m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	SHV 17:16 → ATL 20:13DL 4111 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DEN 00:23 +1DL 956	8h 07m	93%	67%
American Details →	SHV 20:16 → DFW 21:39AA 4128 · flown by Envoy	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → DEN 00:08 +1AA 2852	4h 52m	92%	47%
American Details →	SHV 17:13 → DFW 18:34AA 6337 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577	5h 19m	84%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON