tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 654 SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2136 SJC 22:00 → ATL 05:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 654 Delta Flight history → SJC 06:35 ATL 14:15 7% 2% 0.8% 94%
DL 809 Delta Flight history → SJC 12:40 ATL 20:24 9% 3% 0.8% 91%
DL 2136 Delta Flight history → SJC 22:00 ATL 05:37 9% 3% 0.7% 90%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 6h 39m 96% 85%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35WN 2280 50m Las Vegas LAS 08:25 → ATL 15:25WN 4482 6h 25m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 54m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 6h 37m 93% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON