Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2363 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2363 SJC 06:00 → AUS 11:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4210 SJC 18:25 → AUS 23:55 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2363 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:00	AUS 11:30	11%	2%	0.2%	90%
WN 3790 Southwest	SJC 06:25	AUS 11:56	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 3655 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:40	AUS 18:05	26%	6%	0.5%	48%
WN 300 Southwest	SJC 13:55	AUS 19:23	28%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 4210 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:25	AUS 23:55	28%	9%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON