Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4843 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4843 SJC 06:30 → BUR 07:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1839 SJC 20:50 → BUR 21:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4843 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	BUR 07:40	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 371 Southwest	SJC 07:25	BUR 08:47	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 472 Southwest	SJC 09:37	BUR 10:59	5%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2079 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:55	BUR 11:05	7%	2%	0.9%	85%
WN 3797 Southwest	SJC 12:19	BUR 13:40	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3661 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:10	BUR 13:20	11%	3%	0.9%	94%
WN 1941 Southwest	SJC 14:55	BUR 16:16	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 4931 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:05	BUR 15:15	16%	4%	0.8%	67%
WN 3799 Southwest	SJC 17:15	BUR 18:36	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3663 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:05	BUR 18:15	19%	5%	0.8%	84%
WN 1839 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:50	BUR 21:55	30%	9%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON