tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:47 am at San Jose)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961 7h 46m 100% 79%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357 4h 00m Chicago MDW 20:10 → DCA 23:05WN 1172 10h 00m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 12m 92% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 1h 45m Dallas DAL 18:50 → DCA 22:45WN 1295 8h 05m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30AA 2572 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 9h 12m 90% 64%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:54 → DFW 17:32AA 2046 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752 8h 05m 80% 56%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:19 → SEA 12:30AS 1311 1h 16m Seattle SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2 8h 40m 84% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:47 → DFW 17:30AA 2572 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752 8h 12m 73% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 10:03 → SAN 11:43AS 3059 · flown by SkyWest 59m San Diego SAN 12:42 → DCA 21:00AS 14 7h 57m 74% 46%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 50m Minneapolis MSP 19:34 → DCA 23:07DL 1897 6h 57m 58% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON