Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:56 am at San Jose)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3686 Southwest	SJC 10:50	EUG 12:30	24%	5%	0.3%	no record
WN 2909 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:45	EUG 16:15	28%	8%	0.4%	44%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:53AS 521	3h 56m Seattle	SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon	7h 11m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → EUG 11:48DL 4135 · flown by SkyWest	5h 48m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	97%	83%
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:00 → PDX 09:44AS 679	1h 15m Portland	PDX 10:59 → EUG 11:57AS 3063 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	SJC 06:30 → SAN 08:00WN 3489	3h 15m San Diego	SAN 11:15 → EUG 13:39WN 735	7h 09m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	98%	77%
Southwest Details →	SJC 09:10 → LAS 10:40WN 2369	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 13:05 → EUG 15:13WN 2065	6h 03m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SJC 08:20 → SEA 10:31AS 1426	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 11:37 → EUG 13:01AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	4h 41m	69%	52%
Southwest Details →	SJC 09:00 → SAN 10:25WN 3507	50m San Diego	SAN 11:15 → EUG 13:39WN 735	4h 39m	66%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON