tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 18:37, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJC 18:37 → DEN 22:16UA 1035 1h 43m Denver DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 +1UA 1745 8h 03m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 7h 46m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:47 → SEA 18:54AS 521 3h 46m Seattle SEA 22:40 → EWR 06:59 +1AS 314 11h 12m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 9h 59m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 18:37 → PDX 20:29AS 3030 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Portland PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631 8h 22m 85% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 9h 18m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 33m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 3h 03m Chicago ORD 15:57 → EWR 19:33UA 2171 10h 03m 100% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18AA 2576 56m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 7h 37m 62% 47%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:33AA 2046 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:23 → EWR 23:07AA 2145 8h 12m 58% 36%
UnitedDetails → SJC 13:10 → IAH 19:05UA 2078 50m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 8h 27m 40% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON