tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via DFW, leaving 14:33, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2078 United Flight history → SJC 13:10 IAH 19:05 37% 7% 0.8% 78%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 1h 21m Chicago ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 8h 50m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 2h 46m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 19m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → IAH 15:04DL 1143 6h 04m 93% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 18:45 → SEA 21:00AS 481 2h 57m Seattle SEA 23:57 → IAH 06:20 +1AS 398 9h 35m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 00m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:10UA 719 3h 00m Denver DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253 8h 09m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:05 → PHX 08:22AA 1358 3h 56m Phoenix PHX 12:18 → IAH 16:59AA 640 8h 54m 100% 71%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 17m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 14:23 → DFW 20:04AA 436 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209 6h 01m 72% 41%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:33AA 2046 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392 5h 59m 72% 39%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 07:53 → SEA 09:59AS 1304 53m Seattle SEA 10:52 → IAH 17:16AS 438 7h 23m 63% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON