tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 16:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 16:30 → LAX 17:56DL 3822 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → JFK 05:16 +1DL 960 9h 46m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 2h 27m Seattle SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452 9h 55m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 18:12 → LAX 19:34DL 1438 3h 11m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → JFK 07:03 +1DL 676 9h 51m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 16:55 → JFK 19:48DL 2378 10h 13m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 19:10 → SLC 22:06DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest 1h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705 8h 08m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 55m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 7h 40m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:35 → SEA 13:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Seattle SEA 16:00 → JFK 00:21 +1DL 461 9h 46m 95% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:05 → PHX 08:22AA 1358 53m Phoenix PHX 09:15 → JFK 17:28AA 2689 8h 23m 69% 55%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 06:17 → SEA 08:34AS 1314 52m Seattle SEA 09:26 → JFK 17:29AS 26 8h 12m 51% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON