Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2280 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2280 SJC 06:00 → LAS 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 1590 SJC 14:12 → LAS 15:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2280 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:00	LAS 07:35	2%	1%	0.2%	100%
WN 3810 Southwest	SJC 06:35	LAS 08:08	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3328 Southwest	SJC 07:50	LAS 09:23	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1277 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 07:40	LAS 09:10	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 2627 Southwest	SJC 08:42	LAS 10:15	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2369 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:10	LAS 10:40	8%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 2311 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:20	LAS 11:50	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 1699 Southwest	SJC 10:47	LAS 12:20	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2038 Southwest	SJC 12:57	LAS 14:30	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2339 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:30	LAS 17:00	19%	5%	0.6%	58%
WN 714 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:40	LAS 15:10	19%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 3812 Southwest	SJC 15:39	LAS 17:11	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3811 Southwest	SJC 14:39	LAS 16:12	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3675 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:20	LAS 21:50	19%	6%	0.5%	61%
WN 2335 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:50	LAS 20:20	20%	6%	0.5%	76%
WN 2266 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:00	LAS 18:30	21%	6%	0.6%	57%
WN 5126 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:35	LAS 21:10	21%	5%	0.5%	77%
WN 4363 Southwest	SJC 17:17	LAS 18:49	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 1590 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 14:12	LAS 15:50	33%	10%	0.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON