Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4850 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4850 SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 4082 SJC 20:23 → LAX 21:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4850 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 07:00	LAX 08:25	5%	2%	0.2%	91%
WN 1160 Southwest	SJC 06:40	LAX 08:03	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
DL 1362 Delta	SJC 06:59	LAX 08:21	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1654 Delta Flight history →	SJC 07:00	LAX 08:26	8%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	SJC 11:33	LAX 12:55	10%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1380 Delta	SJC 11:40	LAX 13:02	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2462 Southwest	SJC 12:25	LAX 13:47	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:55	LAX 11:20	13%	5%	0.6%	93%
WN 2384 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:35	LAX 12:55	14%	2%	0.5%	68%
WN 2062 Southwest	SJC 10:20	LAX 11:43	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 14:59	LAX 16:24	14%	6%	0.7%	92%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	SJC 18:12	LAX 19:34	14%	5%	0.8%	93%
OO 3847 SkyWest	SJC 09:50	LAX 11:16	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	SJC 18:18	LAX 19:39	15%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 16:30	LAX 17:56	16%	6%	0.7%	93%
WN 4877 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:25	LAX 11:45	16%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 20:25	LAX 22:00	17%	8%	0.7%	92%
OO 3849 SkyWest	SJC 16:20	LAX 17:46	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 770 Southwest	SJC 14:05	LAX 15:28	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2477 Southwest	SJC 16:00	LAX 17:22	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 940 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:30	LAX 15:50	23%	4%	0.5%	55%
WN 4541 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 16:20	LAX 17:40	23%	4%	0.5%	74%
WN 3681 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 20:20	LAX 21:45	24%	6%	0.5%	31%
WN 4940 Southwest	SJC 18:00	LAX 19:22	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3680 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:20	LAX 19:40	26%	6%	0.5%	38%
F9 4082 Frontier Flight history →	SJC 20:23	LAX 21:48	30%	10%	2.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON