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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 13:10 → MSP 18:44DL 2383 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 30m 94% 72%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 9h 58m 99% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 10h 52m 99% 62%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:54 → LGA 18:28AA 1535 9h 27m 95% 55%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586 3h 37m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 10h 09m 95% 54%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 09:20 → HOU 15:10WN 3673 2h 15m Houston HOU 17:25 → LGA 21:55WN 2190 9h 35m 100% 54%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:34AA 2046 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708 8h 50m 86% 53%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 2h 27m Chicago ORD 15:21 → LGA 18:40UA 2133 9h 10m 100% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON