tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:08 am at San Jose)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 17:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:55 → SEA 20:13DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 10h 45m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SJC 18:12 → LAX 19:34DL 1438 2h 53m Los Angeles LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547 9h 13m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 16:48 → SEA 18:53AS 521 2h 40m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 10h 28m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 59m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 17:02 → SAN 18:36AS 3211 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m San Diego SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707 9h 16m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 19:10 → PHX 21:10WN 3696 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MCO 06:20 +1WN 4508 8h 10m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 1h 06m Chicago ORD 14:00 → MCO 17:57UA 609 8h 27m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:20 → MSP 11:59DL 2156 3h 31m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → MCO 20:02DL 1885 10h 42m 99% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SJC 14:35 → DEN 18:00WN 3668 50m Denver DEN 18:50 → MCO 00:21 +1WN 1671 6h 46m 60% 38%
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:54 → DFW 17:32AA 2046 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → MCO 22:20AA 2186 7h 26m 65% 36%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 11:40 → DAL 17:05WN 965 47m Dallas DAL 17:52 → MCO 21:28WN 1336 6h 48m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON