tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:01, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 17:01 → SLC 19:54DL 1260 3h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 39m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811 8h 07m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 15m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18AA 2576 1h 47m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 05m 84% 69%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:09 → MIA 19:25DL 1631 9h 50m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → SJC 12:39 → PHX 14:35AA 3325 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 16:44 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 3148 8h 24m 94% 65%
UnitedDetails → SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586 3h 30m Denver DEN 15:53 → MIA 21:59UA 1741 10h 14m 95% 63%
AmericanDetails → SJC 06:01 → DFW 11:46AA 1019 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083 10h 39m 97% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJC 11:55 → DFW 17:34AA 2046 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:41 → MIA 22:39AA 2050 7h 44m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON