tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2156 Delta Flight history → SJC 06:20 MSP 11:59 6% 2% 0.6% 94%
DL 2383 Delta Flight history → SJC 13:10 MSP 18:44 8% 3% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 1314 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924 6h 40m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 07:00 → LAX 08:26DL 1654 2h 49m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413 7h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → SJC 11:33 → LAX 12:55DL 2965 2h 27m Los Angeles LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198 7h 26m 100% 85%
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:00 → PDX 09:44AS 679 2h 01m Portland PDX 11:45 → MSP 17:05AS 332 7h 05m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SJC 12:40 → ATL 20:24DL 809 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310 9h 59m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:54UA 2451 1h 36m Chicago ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298 7h 43m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 5h 47m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJC 06:35 → ATL 14:15DL 654 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 9h 43m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SJC 08:00 → PDX 09:44AS 679 46m Portland PDX 10:30 → MSP 15:58AS 1429 5h 58m 73% 64%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 10:05 → MDW 16:10WN 4357 55m Chicago MDW 17:05 → MSP 18:35WN 4643 6h 30m 75% 62%
SouthwestDetails → SJC 14:35 → DEN 18:00WN 3668 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:05 → MSP 22:10WN 2677 5h 35m 74% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON