Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: UA 2740 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet today UA 2740 SJC 06:30 → ORD 12:52 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1650 SJC 14:02 → ORD 20:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2740 United	SJC 06:30	ORD 12:52	9%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 2451 United Flight history →	SJC 06:30	ORD 12:54	9%	2%	0.4%	97%
UA 1650 United	SJC 14:02	ORD 20:20	22%	9%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SJC 08:45 → DEN 12:23UA 586	1h 02m Denver	DEN 13:25 → ORD 17:05UA 617	6h 20m	90%	69%
Delta Details →	SJC 14:59 → LAX 16:24DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 17:15 → ORD 23:18DL 1634	6h 19m	81%	59%
United Details →	SJC 14:32 → DEN 18:10UA 719	1h 00m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258	6h 17m	78%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON