Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3829 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3829 SJC 06:15 → PDX 08:08 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2433 SJC 15:00 → PDX 16:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3829 Southwest	SJC 06:15	PDX 08:08	3%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 3693 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:55	PDX 08:40	3%	1%	0.1%	100%
OO 3340 SkyWest	SJC 07:57	PDX 09:54	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 679 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 08:00	PDX 09:44	6%	2%	0.6%	100%
AS 393 Alaska	SJC 14:13	PDX 16:07	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1633 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 14:31	PDX 16:15	12%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 400 Alaska	SJC 18:56	PDX 20:51	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3830 Southwest	SJC 13:55	PDX 15:49	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 3030 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 18:37	PDX 20:29	17%	8%	0.6%	75%
WN 384 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:40	PDX 23:25	19%	5%	0.4%	55%
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:00	PDX 16:40	22%	3%	0.4%	68%
AS 2256 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 09:46	PDX 11:31	4%	4%	1.9%	96%
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 12:03	PDX 13:48	33%	14%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON