Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3832 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3832 SJC 06:21 → PHX 08:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2576 SJC 19:23 → PHX 21:18 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3832 Southwest	SJC 06:21	PHX 08:17	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3186 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:25	PHX 08:20	5%	1%	0.6%	100%
AA 1358 American Flight history →	SJC 06:08	PHX 08:25	8%	3%	0.7%	97%
AA 1694 American Flight history →	SJC 06:01	PHX 08:05	9%	3%	0.7%	91%
WN 3232 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:40	PHX 13:35	14%	2%	0.6%	83%
AA 3325 American Flight history →	SJC 12:39	PHX 14:35	21%	4%	0.7%	79%
WN 3266 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 16:05	PHX 18:00	22%	5%	0.6%	48%
WN 3697 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:45	PHX 23:40	24%	8%	0.6%	46%
WN 5023 Southwest	SJC 17:25	PHX 19:20	25%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3696 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:10	PHX 21:10	26%	7%	0.6%	56%
AA 2576 American Flight history →	SJC 19:23	PHX 21:18	35%	9%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON