Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1314 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–12%.

Safest bet that day DL 1314 SJC 06:00 → SLC 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 3538 SJC 15:35 → SLC 18:25 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1314 Delta Flight history →	SJC 06:00	SLC 08:55	5%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SJC 13:40	SLC 16:33	8%	5%	0.6%	94%
DL 4026 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:45	SLC 12:41	8%	5%	0.6%	95%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SJC 17:01	SLC 19:54	10%	5%	0.6%	94%
DL 3937 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 19:10	SLC 22:06	12%	6%	0.6%	84%
WN 3538 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:35	SLC 18:25	16%	5%	0.5%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON