Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3707 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3707 SJC 06:30 → SNA 07:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 3713 SJC 17:00 → SNA 18:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3707 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	SNA 07:55	3%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3846 Southwest	SJC 07:00	SNA 08:28	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3847 Southwest	SJC 08:31	SNA 09:59	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3708 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 08:25	SNA 09:50	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 3626 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:30	SNA 10:55	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3848 Southwest	SJC 10:01	SNA 11:29	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3710 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:05	SNA 13:30	12%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 397 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:00	SNA 14:25	14%	3%	0.6%	92%
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:28	SNA 11:11	15%	5%	0.6%	67%
OO 3464 SkyWest	SJC 19:08	SNA 20:49	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3210 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:40	SNA 21:05	20%	4%	0.6%	75%
WN 3712 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 15:15	SNA 16:35	21%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 3714 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 18:30	SNA 19:55	22%	5%	0.6%	82%
WN 3713 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:00	SNA 18:20	22%	5%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON