tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:57 am at San Juan)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33% (calm day: 21%). Best bet: Southwest via BWI, leaving 17:15, 44% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
B6 634 JetBlue Flight history → SJU 18:29 BUF 23:07 49% 16% 1.7% 85%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 3h 47m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 9h 37m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024 1h 30m Dulles IAD 22:26 → BUF 23:59UA 3516 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → SJU 13:25 → EWR 17:39UA 1173 3h 39m Newark EWR 21:18 → BUF 22:59UA 3476 · flown by Republic 9h 34m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → SJU 14:25 → PHL 18:38AA 903 3h 42m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 9h 28m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → SJU 17:15 → BWI 21:25WN 3719 1h 30m Baltimore BWI 22:55 → BUF 00:15 +1WN 4577 7h 00m 93% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:42 → ATL 18:36DL 1882 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 9h 17m 98% 66%
JetBlueDetails → SJU 14:05 → FLL 16:47B6 1454 3h 06m Fort Lauderdale FLL 19:53 → BUF 23:00B6 866 8h 55m 92% 57%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 1h 26m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 7h 11m 90% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SJU 17:15 → BWI 21:25WN 3719 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → BUF 23:45WN 4742 6h 30m 71% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON