Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3718 SJU 10:20 → BWI 14:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2265 SJU 07:34 → BWI 11:40 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3718 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 10:20	BWI 14:25	15%	3%	2.2%	92%
WN 2124 Southwest	SJU 17:35	BWI 21:50	21%	4%	1.8%	no record
WN 3719 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 17:15	BWI 21:25	22%	4%	1.8%	84%
F9 2265 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 07:34	BWI 11:40	25%	9%	5.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON