Today: AA 783 at 15:40 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–49%.

Safest bet today AA 783 SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest F9 3003 SJU 15:36 → CLT 19:33 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 783 American Flight history →	SJU 15:40	CLT 19:39	21%	5%	3.0%	84%
AA 3187 American Flight history →	SJU 12:46	CLT 16:37	22%	6%	3.0%	88%
F9 3003 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:36	CLT 19:33	49%	14%	3.0%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON