Today: AA 1847 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–29%.

Safest bet today AA 1847 SJU 05:45 → DFW 10:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest F9 2219 SJU 06:32 → DFW 10:41 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 1847 American Flight history →	SJU 05:45	DFW 10:00	14%	6%	2.4%	72%
AA 3159 American Flight history →	SJU 16:23	DFW 20:44	27%	7%	1.9%	52%
F9 2219 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:32	DFW 10:41	29%	10%	5.0%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SJU 07:00 → IAH 10:53UA 1644	1h 12m Houston	IAH 12:05 → DFW 13:34UA 4024 · flown by Mesa	7h 34m	96%	75%
American Details →	SJU 06:00 → MIA 08:55AA 2817	1h 10m Miami	MIA 10:05 → DFW 12:17AA 3081	7h 17m	97%	71%
American Details →	SJU 10:35 → MIA 13:21AA 3001	1h 08m Miami	MIA 14:29 → DFW 16:51AA 2762	7h 16m	92%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON