Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:47 pm at San Juan); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29% (calm day: 17%). Best bet: United via Dulles, leaving 16:55, 71% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 22:26 → DTW 00:13 +1UA 2846	7h 18m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	7h 09m	87%	56%
Southwest Details →	SJU 17:15 → BWI 21:25WN 3719	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 22:40 → DTW 00:20 +1WN 942	7h 05m	91%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	SJU 17:15 → BWI 21:25WN 3719	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 22:25 → DTW 00:02 +1WN 998	6h 47m	64%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON