Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 26% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2036 at 18:45, 24%.

Safest bet today UA 2036 SJU 18:45 → EWR 22:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 1990 SJU 14:55 → EWR 19:08 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2036 United Flight history →	SJU 18:45	EWR 22:55	24%	12%	2.2%	84%
UA 1173 United Flight history →	SJU 13:25	EWR 17:39	28%	14%	2.7%	66%
B6 1390 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 16:56	EWR 21:00	49%	20%	2.2%	63%worse than usual
B6 1990 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:55	EWR 19:08	50%	22%	2.2%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON