tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:12 pm at San Juan); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2024 at 16:55, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2024 United Flight history → SJU 16:55 IAD 20:56 18% 7% 1.6% 86%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088 1h 55m Chicago ORD 22:10 → IAD 01:13 +1UA 1922 9h 17m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913 2h 39m Detroit DTW 21:42 → IAD 23:16DL 1902 8h 55m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 8h 30m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668 1h 22m Houston IAH 20:13 → IAD 00:06 +1UA 1968 9h 11m 91% 67%
DeltaDetails → SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946 1h 04m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 51m 84% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783 52m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 6h 25m 55% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON