Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:40 am at San Juan); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:50, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 1644 United Flight history →	SJU 07:00	IAH 10:53	9%	4%	4.3%	96%
UA 668 United Flight history →	SJU 14:55	IAH 18:51	21%	6%	3.0%	81%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind San Juan). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:45 +1UA 1986	8h 50m	93%	76%
United Details →	SJU 15:56 → ORD 20:15UA 2088	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → IAH 00:34 +1UA 2665	9h 38m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:58 → ATL 16:56DL 1930	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	9h 26m	100%	75%
United Details →	SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53UA 2089	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451	10h 40m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:21 → DTW 19:03DL 1913	1h 22m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	9h 03m	91%	73%
United Details →	SJU 07:20 → IAD 11:21UA 2022	3h 36m Dulles	IAD 14:57 → IAH 17:21UA 2607	11h 01m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	SJU 12:50 → ATL 16:40DL 1757	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:16DL 2327	8h 26m	98%	72%
United Details →	SJU 13:40 → DEN 18:15UA 1368	2h 55m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	12h 01m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53UA 2089	47m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	9h 00m	70%	57%
American Details →	SJU 11:54 → MIA 14:43AA 2582	47m Miami	MIA 15:30 → IAH 17:22AA 1931	6h 28m	75%	52%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 18m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 21:00 → IAH 23:02B6 2779	7h 02m	70%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON