Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:27 am at San Juan); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 54%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: B6 1742 at 11:33, 54%.

Nonstops today


B6 1742 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:33	JAX 14:45	54%	19%	2.7%	81%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SJU 15:02 → MIA 17:53AA 2584	2h 15m Miami	MIA 20:08 → JAX 21:33AA 3893 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	96%	69%
American Details →	SJU 11:54 → MIA 14:43AA 2582	2h 56m Miami	MIA 17:39 → JAX 19:07AA 3605 · flown by Envoy	7h 13m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	SJU 13:10 → JFK 17:19DL 1966	1h 56m New York	JFK 19:15 → JAX 22:17DL 5123 · flown by Endeavor	9h 07m	95%	65%
American Details →	SJU 16:38 → MIA 19:33AA 2581	3h 20m Miami	MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 +1AA 416	7h 37m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	6h 19m	87%	61%
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 22:32 → JAX 23:55AA 1302	8h 15m	98%	60%
United Details →	SJU 14:55 → IAH 18:51UA 668	1h 09m Houston	IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293	8h 25m	86%	56%
Delta Details →	SJU 14:08 → BOS 18:19DL 1780	2h 16m Boston	BOS 20:35 → JAX 23:39DL 5593 · flown by Republic	9h 31m	96%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SJU 15:40 → CLT 19:39AA 783	51m Charlotte	CLT 20:30 → JAX 21:54AA 1889	6h 14m	68%	35%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 17:00 → FLL 19:42B6 154	1h 28m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 21:10 → JAX 22:42B6 18	5h 42m	66%	33%
JetBlue Details →	SJU 10:30 → JFK 14:43B6 904	57m New York	JFK 15:40 → JAX 18:16B6 677	7h 46m	54%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON