Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1854 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 1854 SJU 07:35 → JFK 11:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 704 SJU 22:40 → JFK 02:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1854 Delta Flight history →	SJU 07:35	JFK 11:30	6%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1961 Delta Flight history →	SJU 17:50	JFK 22:04	8%	5%	0.7%	87%
DL 1966 Delta Flight history →	SJU 13:10	JFK 17:19	9%	4%	0.7%	85%
B6 904 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 10:30	JFK 14:39	19%	9%	0.8%	75%
B6 2904 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:01	JFK 08:54	25%	8%	1.4%	84%
B6 1004 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 12:48	JFK 16:57	26%	13%	0.8%	69%
B6 1104 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 12:04	JFK 16:01	30%	12%	0.8%	75%
B6 304 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:30	JFK 22:28	30%	16%	0.8%	71%
B6 1604 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 13:10	JFK 17:07	33%	13%	0.8%	82%worse than usual
B6 504 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 20:10	JFK 00:07	37%	18%	0.8%	72%
B6 704 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 22:40	JFK 02:34	37%	18%	0.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON