Today: AA 1852 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet today AA 1852 SJU 10:41 → MIA 13:34 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2283 SJU 11:50 → MIA 14:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1852 American	SJU 10:41	MIA 13:34	12%	7%	2.7%	no record
AA 3001 American Flight history →	SJU 10:35	MIA 13:21	12%	6%	2.7%	89%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	SJU 11:54	MIA 14:43	15%	7%	2.7%	89%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	SJU 16:38	MIA 19:33	17%	8%	2.4%	69%
AA 3228 American	SJU 16:35	MIA 19:32	17%	8%	2.4%	no record
AA 1341 American Flight history →	SJU 12:18	MIA 15:06	17%	9%	2.7%	82%
AA 1976 American	SJU 14:23	MIA 17:18	18%	9%	2.4%	no record
AA 2584 American Flight history →	SJU 15:02	MIA 17:53	18%	8%	2.4%	76%
AA 3165 American Flight history →	SJU 19:14	MIA 22:05	22%	8%	1.0%	73%
F9 2283 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 11:50	MIA 14:44	24%	10%	3.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON