Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2089 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2089 SJU 07:40 → ORD 11:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3345 SJU 19:14 → ORD 23:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2089 United Flight history →	SJU 07:40	ORD 11:53	9%	5%	2.2%	96%
AA 1865 American	SJU 15:00	ORD 19:29	21%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 2088 United Flight history →	SJU 15:56	ORD 20:15	22%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 2592 American Flight history →	SJU 00:59	ORD 05:04	26%	9%	3.4%	91%worse than usual
F9 3345 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 19:14	ORD 23:27	33%	14%	1.2%	61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SJU 16:55 → IAD 20:56UA 2024	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → ORD 23:31UA 1738	7h 36m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	SJU 06:00 → ATL 09:45DL 1879	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	7h 34m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	SJU 17:50 → ATL 21:49DL 1946	51m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	7h 03m	81%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON