Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: AA 903 at 14:25, 38%.

Safest bet today AA 903 SJU 14:25 → PHL 18:38 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1165 SJU 15:10 → PHL 19:08 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 903 American Flight history →	SJU 14:25	PHL 18:38	38%	14%	2.4%	80%worse than usual
AA 1977 American	SJU 14:32	PHL 18:41	40%	15%	2.4%	no record
F9 1725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:51	PHL 22:55	52%	27%	2.2%	60%worse than usual
F9 1165 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:10	PHL 19:08	62%	25%	2.4%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON