tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:22 pm at Salt Lake City)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 22%). Best bet: Delta via Seattle, leaving 15:15, 36% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2713 Delta Flight history → SLC 20:30 ANC 23:20 25% 7% 0.2% 74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 9h 38m 88% 69%
UnitedDetails → SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662 3h 00m Denver DEN 19:11 → ANC 22:59UA 280 10h 31m 94% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SLC 14:50 → LAS 15:15WN 4338 3h 15m Las Vegas LAS 18:30 → ANC 22:45WN 1575 9h 55m 100% 58%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 3h 59m Seattle SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363 9h 56m 100% 54%
DeltaDetails → SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871 2h 47m Seattle SEA 21:20 → ANC 23:58DL 936 8h 38m 94% 48%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734 3h 40m Seattle SEA 20:56 → ANC 23:39AS 711 9h 39m 99% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 19:38 → PDX 20:41AS 3308 · flown by SkyWest 49m Portland PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:36 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 6h 58m 36% 26%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665 56m Seattle SEA 20:56 → ANC 23:39AS 711 6h 55m 42% 19%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 16:00 → SEA 17:16AS 734 48m Seattle SEA 18:04 → ANC 20:46AS 1408 6h 46m 27% 9%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON