Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4932 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4932 SLC 06:05 → AUS 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3733 SLC 17:30 → AUS 21:15 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4932 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 06:05	AUS 09:45	5%	1%	0.5%	93%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	AUS 11:25	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3955 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	AUS 14:50	15%	6%	0.6%	83%
DL 2689 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:19	AUS 17:03	19%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:08	AUS 17:57	20%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 2728 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:45	AUS 21:30	22%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 3733 Southwest Flight history →	SLC 17:30	AUS 21:15	33%	8%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON